Originally published Leah Schwarting, Villages Daily Sun
The midterms are over; the race to the White House is on. It’s a race that, one way or another, winds through Florida and The Villages. In fact, it’s arriving Tuesday. That’s when former vice president Mike Pence is holding a fireside chat and signing for his recently published book, “So Help Me God.” The event, which is open to the public, is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Tuesday at Ezell Recreation. While Pence hasn’t announced his intent to run for president, he’s one of several Republican politicians whose names are being floated as potential candidates. So far the only one to announce their candidacy is former president Donald Trump, but the fight to secure the Republican nomination is only beginning.
Pence’s book signing Tuesday is a potential indicator of a White House bid. While it’s common for political figures in general to publish books, it’s also common for the move to precede a presidential run.
For example, in 2014 Dr. Ben Carson came to Lake Sumter Landing for a book signing. About a year later, he announced he was running as a Republican candidate for president.
And Pence isn’t the only person with presidential potential whose book hit the shelves recently. In 2022, multiple potential candidates released books. Later this month, Mike Pompeo, former secretary of state, will release his book, while Gov. Ron DeSantis’ book drops in February.
“They come out with a book for informational purposes so people can find out a little more about them and maybe something about what some of their policy priorities, values and goals would be,” said Aubrey Jewett, assistant director of the University of Central Florida’s school of politics, security and international affairs. “But it’s mostly about getting more recognition and media coverage, and being able to generate that media coverage.
“Maybe in a rare case it’s even been about making money, but I don’t think most of them are great sellers actually.”
In some ways, Pence’s stop in Florida is unusual. Florida isn’t an early primary state, as its presidential preference primary isn’t until March 2024.
The state’s political clout typically lies with the general election. For a long time, it was considered one of most important states — if not the most important.
“Now that remains to be seen in 2024 because our importance was we were considered the largest battleground state, and that may or may not be true about us any more,” Jewett said. “We’re still large, but we may not be a battleground.”
In the past Florida’s voters were narrowly divided amongst the two main parties. However, the state’s registered Republicans now outnumber registered Democrats, a gap that’s only grown over the past few months.
But even if it’s no longer a battleground state, that doesn’t mean Florida lacks importance. Being a battleground state is one thing, said Susan MacManus, University of South Florida professor emeritus in political science, but raising money is another.
“Florida is always going to be an important campaign stop,” she said. “And that’s true for both Democrats and Republicans, if for no other reason that Florida has a history of being a big donor state.”
And if you’re seeking the Republican nomination, the most solidly red age group in the state is the boomer and older generations.
“And The Villages, if you had to pick one place in Florida that probably is the most Republican-dominated older community in the state, it’s The Villages,” MacManus said. “And it’s well-known across the country for that.”
Accordingly, multiple White House hopefuls have visited Florida’s Friendliest Hometown in past years.
Still, voters and donors aren’t the only important Sunshine State residents. The current front-runners for the Republican nomination, DeSantis and Trump, are Floridians.
“Even if (DeSantis) doesn’t run and Donald Trump is the presumed front-runner for the nomination, he’s a Florida resident now too,” Jewett said. “So Florida, in that sense, may also have some significance since it has a connection to the two highest potential Republican candidates.”
Their residency, MacManus said, will keep the media spotlight, and that of the parties’ activists, on the state.
Again though, only Trump has announced his run. While 2024 is approaching quickly, deciding when to announce can be a tricky needle to thread.
The earlier you announce, the more scrutiny you get, MacManus said. In many cases, federal campaign financial rules are stricter than state ones.
“You want to get attention and you want to raise money, but formal announcements kick in other regulations from a financial standpoint,” she said. “And that deals with both contributors and candidates.”
Until that formal announcement, all people have is speculation — speculation, and, of course, books.
